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News vs. opinion

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I’m often frustrated by the way monthly jobs reports are covered. News reports should be dry and bland, with lots of numbers and relevant comparisons. They should include quotes from Department of Labor officials and economists, including those who feel the government’s interpretation is either too optimistic or too pessimistic.

By contrast, The Associated Press story on the latest jobs report looked like something out of the White House press office. The headline reads, “U.S. adds a strong 242,000 jobs; rate holds at a low 4.9 percent” — and it gets worse. The report contains loaded words such as “robust,” “solid,” “resilient (describing the U.S. job market),” and “strong.” I have no problem with the AP quoting a White House or Labor Department official who may have used these words. I do have a problem with the AP wielding them as if they were settled fact. The AP’s fan mail includes this unattributed statement: “The gains show that the U.S. economy has weathered a global economic slowdown and falling financial markets without suffering much blowback.” You can’t conclude that from one month’s worth of jobs data. It would be unfair to conclude “We’re going down the tubes” from negative data covering so short a period, too.

Maybe if the writer of this AP piece, Josh Boak, hadn’t been so eager to paint a happy picture of the job market, he’d have gotten to this little nugget before the sixth paragraph: “Worker pay did slip last month after having picked up in January.” Ugh.

Of course it did. Nearly 40 percent of the new jobs were in the retail and restaurant sectors, which don’t pay as well as most other categories: “Hiring by construction companies, retailers and health care providers has offset layoffs at manufacturers and fossil fuel companies — two sectors squeezed by the pressures of uncertainty in China, sluggishness in Europe, declining oil prices and a stronger dollar. Job losses for the mining sector — an area that includes the battered energy industry — have totaled 140,400 in the past 12 months. And manufacturing has added just 12,000 jobs over that time.”

Put another way, a lot of guys and gals formerly making big bucks in manufacturing and the fossil-fuel business are now stocking shelves at Wal-Mart and asking if you want fries with that.

Ironically, for a somewhat more balanced account of the jobs report, you can check out this OPINION piece by Robert Stein on the National Review Online/The Corner blog. Although it paints a fairly positive picture of job growth, you won’t find words like “strong,” “robust” and “solid.” It also provides important information not included in the AP story, though not concealed by the DOL. Example:

(T)he participation rate rose to 62.9 percent in February. That’s still very low by historical standards, but, after hitting a post-1977 low of 62.4 percent back in September, the participation rate has increased by the most in any five-month period since the early 1990s. More jobs and an upward trend in “real” (inflation-adjusted) wages appears to be drawing more workers back into the labor force, temporarily offsetting the negative effects of aging Boomers, easily available disability benefits, and overly generous student aid.

The takeaway from all this data is: Don’t celebrate the bad news if you’re a Republican looking to do well in November, and don’t celebrate the good news if you’re a Democrat. Look at your own work life and those of your friends, acquaintances and family, and draw your own conclusions. The anecdotal data you come up with arguably is more valid than any one-month snapshot of the job market.

 


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